MANILA, Aug 31 (PNA) — Businessmen consider the third quarter a ghost month but businessmen remain bullish on their outlook, a central bank survey showed.

Results of the Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas’ (BSP) business expectations survey (BES) for the third quarter of 2013 showed a lower confidence index (CI) of 43.8 percent from the previous quarter’s 54.9 percent.

In a briefing Friday, BSP Deputy Director of Department of Economic Statistics (DES) Teresita Deveza attributed the lower index to seasonal drop in demand due to the rainy season, higher competition particularly with products from China and peso weakness.

“Uncertainties in the global economy such as the impact of the anticipated exit from quantitative easing in the US also contributed to their lower optimism,” she said.

Deveza said the outlook of Filipino businessmen is similar to those in Hong Kong, South Korea, and India but is weaker compared to those from US, UK, Canada, Germany and New Zealand.

Amid the lower confidence index for the third quarter this year, BSP Deputy Governor Diwa Guinigundo, during the same briefing, said businesses “continue to be broadly bullish.”

“There was some slight decline in the confidence index, but in general it remains in a positive territory. And therefore the bullishness that we saw in the first and second quarter continue through the third quarter,” he added.

On the other hand, the index for the four quarter posted its all-time high 60 percent since the survey was conducted nationwide in the last quarter of 2006.

Deveza said seasonal demand also plays as a major factor due to the Christmas season and introduction of new product lines.

“The prevailing favorable macroeconomic conditions such as low interest rates, manageable inflation, steady growth of overseas Filipino remittances, increase in investment inflows as well as the recent investment grade credit rating from three rating agencies namely Fitch Ratings, Standard & Poor’s and Japan Credit Rating Agency also boosted business confidence for the next quarter,” she said.

Meanwhile, the respondents also see the peso to sustain its current depreciation mode in the third quarter but to recover in the fourth quarter.

Both the interest rates and inflation are expected to increase both in the third and the fourth quarter.

The survey was conducted from July 1 to 13, 2013 and was participated in by 1,552 firms included in the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) Top 7,000 corporations. (PNA)
DSP/JS/UTB